Ranking the remaining teams in the UEFA Champions League

The 2023/24 UEFA Champions League season has entered its most crucial stage in the campaign, with the initial 32 teams that began the campaign now whittled down to eight teams.

Four representatives from each of the top four European leagues and several teams from the other UEFA association members joined the party in September. However, only the biggest teams are still standing after a keenly contested group stage from September to December last year and an exciting knockout phase between February and March this year. Champions League tickets are already available for the quarter-finals.

Last Eight Standing 

Defending champions Manchester City beat Danish side FC Copenhagen 6-2 on aggregate to book their place here, while record holders Real Madrid struggled to overpower RB Leipzig, sneaking past with a 2-1 aggregate win.

Meanwhile, last year's finalists, Inter Milan, could not repeat their heroics of the previous season as Atletico Madrid beat them on penalties, although they won the first leg at the San Siro. The Nerazzurri were not the only Italian team knocked out in the last round by Spanish opposition. Current Serie A defending champions Napoli were also beaten by Barcelona over two legs, making it three La Liga teams in this round–the most from a single league in the quarter-finals.

Elsewhere, Arsenal needed penalties to beat Porto, the only surviving Portuguese side after the group stage, to join Man City as the second English team in the last eight. Meanwhile, Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund beat Lazio and PSV, respectively, to qualify as the two teams from Germany, while PSG knocked out Real Sociedad to ensure France's Ligue 1 flag is still flying in the UCL.

Clear Path to the Final

After the teams in the last eight were confirmed, UEFA conducted a draw

 to determine who would face whom in the next round. Before the draw, most clubs hoped to avoid Man City and Real Madrid, while Borussia Dortmund was considered the weakest team in the competition and the team everybody wanted to face.

In the end, UEFA's draw produced a truly epic matchup. Each team got an opponent their size on paper. Manchester City got Real Madrid, Paris Saint-Germain was drawn against Barcelona, Arsenal got Bayern Munich, and Atletico Madrid was drawn against Borussia Dortmund.

UEFA's quarter-final draw also established a clear path to the final. The winners of Man City versus Real Madrid will face the winners of the tie between Arsenal and Bayern Munich in the semifinals. In the same way, the winners of PSG versus Barca will play the winners of Dortmund and Atlético in the next round. In June, The semifinal winners will face off in a single-leg final at Wembley Stadium.

With the path to the final now clear, we consider each side's chances of winning the trophy, beginning with the least likely side and proceeding to the most likely side.

Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund may have won the UEFA Champions League before, but they are not yet considered a top team in this competition judging by their recent history. 

Since reaching the final in 2013 under Jürgen Klopp, the German club has not progressed past this stage of the UCL. They were more recently knocked out at the knockout stage in the 2022/23 season, winning just three out of their eight games last season.

However, despite their poor recent history, Edin Terzić's side are no weaklings. The Yellow and Black Army finished top of a difficult group comprising AC Milan, PSG and Newcastle in the group stage. 

But can they handle Atletico Madrid in the next round or Barcelona or PSG in the semifinal if they manage to beat Atletico over two legs? The answer is no, given their inconsistency and poor form. BVB are currently the fourth-best team in the Bundesliga, and the pressure and distraction of keeping hold of fourth position may be too big for them to manage.

Atlético Madrid

Like Dortmund, Atletico are also struggling domestically. However, given their recent history and Diego Simeone's genius, the Spanish side may have a higher chance of winning the trophy than BVB.

Yet, their terrible form in 2024, which has seen them drop out of La Liga's top four, makes their prospect of winning the 2024 UCL very unlikely. Los Colchoneros have lost eight out of 19 games this year, so betting on them reaching the final is tough.

They will likely beat Dortmund in the next round over two legs, but PSG and Barca may be too giant a hurdle for them to surmount. 

Barcelona 

Barcelona should ordinarily be higher on this list. However, their low rating shows how bad things have been for the Catalan club. Once a force to reckon with in Europe, Barca has suffered consistent embarrassments in the UCL and Europa League in recent seasons.

However, they have done better this season, finishing top of their group before dispatching Napoli in the last round. But that has not suddenly made them solid. Yet they are still too inconsistent to be taken seriously, and facing PSG and Kylian Mbappe in the next round doesn't help much.

Bayern Munich 

Bayern Munich is another top European side that should be higher on this list but is lower down the pecking order. The Bavarians are struggling this season under Thomas Tuchel and look likely to end the season trophyless.

However, the good news is that despite underachieving domestically, they have been solid in Europe. The six-time champions completed the group stage unbeaten, with five wins and one draw. But they struggled against Lazio, losing the first leg before regrouping to win the second leg and progressing.

While they may be facing familiar foes and former punchbag Arsenal in the next round, they enter the draw as underdogs given the Gunners' form and the fact that they will play the first leg away at the Emirates without their fans.

Paris Saint-Germain

PSG are this high on the list just because of Kylian Mbappe and their coach, Luis Enrique, who won this trophy when he was Barcelona's coach. Except for these two men, PSG looks ordinary. 

The Parisians scraped through the group stage, qualifying for the Round of 16 by the skin of their teeth before convincingly beating Real Sociedad in the last round. With Mbappe in top form, PSG will back themselves against Barcelona, Atletico Madrid or Borussia Dortmund, so a run to a final seems more likely.

Arsenal

Mikel Arteta's Arsenal side is arguably the most entertaining team to watch in the UCL this season despite playing in the tournament for the first time since 2016/17. The Gunners topped their group before beating Porto on penalties to break their quarter-final curse.

However, a run to the final may be too much to ask from this young Arsenal team, even though they are a side in form. Should they overpower Bayern in the next round, Real Madrid or Man City in the semifinals may prove impossible to surmount.

Real Madrid

Judging by their form and the quality of football they're playing, Real Madrid should be lower on this list.

But they are higher just because they are Madrid, European royalty. Los Blancos have not been firing on all cylinders, but they are the second favourite team to win the UCL, given their rich history and knack for clutch performances when it matters.

The Galacticos performed excellently in the group, winning all their games. But they struggled against RB Leipzig over two legs, suggesting they may be knocked off their quest when they play Manchester City in the next round.

Manchester City

After finally winning the coveted European crown last season, City look like the favourites to win another one this year. Pep Guardiola's side have been impeccable in the UCL this year, winning all eight games thus far.

Their only blemish is that they have kept just one clean sheet in the UCL this season. Other than that, they have looked unplayable. However, their quarter-final clash against Madrid could cause concern, as Los Blancos have only lost one game all year and could be the biggest threat to the City's hope for a treble this season.