Clubs likely to overperform in the Champions League this season
The new Champions League season is almost upon us after Thursday's draw in Monaco.
Europe's premier club competition is set to begin in the third week of September, and Real Madrid will be looking to defend its crown and continue its dominance of Europe.
Los Blancos won the competition last season, beating surprise finalists Borussia Dortmund 2-0 on the night in Wembley.
Carlo Ancelotti's side were one of the clubs expected to reach the final last year, with data-crunching site Opta giving them a 6.6% chance of winning the title, behind only Manchester City (36.1%), Bayern Munich (10.6%) and Arsenal (7%).
Meanwhile, last year's finalists, Borussia Dortmund, were not even expected to qualify from their difficult group, which included AC Milan, PSG and Newcastle. And so they were given a 1.6% chance of reaching the final.
However, Dortmund exceeded expectations and had a fantastic run to the final, which included topping their group and beating a much more fancied side, PSG, in the semi-final.
The Champions League draw for this season was held this week, and as usual, we could be served another surprise run to the final.
New Champions League format
However, unlike in former seasons, which featured a group stage with 32 participants divided into eight groups of four teams, the new Champions League has 36 teams competing in the first phase, called the league phase (former group stage). Those 36 clubs will participate in a single league competition in which all 36 competing clubs are ranked together.
Under the new format, teams will play eight matches in the new league phase. In the old format, teams played three opponents twice – home and away – to determine group winners.
However, in the new format, each participant will face eight different teams, playing half of those matches at home and half of them away.
The results of each match will decide the overall ranking in the new league, with three points for a win and one for a draw still applying.
At the end of the league phase, the top eight sides in the league will qualify automatically for the round of 16, while the teams finishing in 9th to 24th place will compete in a two-legged knock-out phase playoff to secure their path to the last 16 of the competition.
After this league phase and from the round of 16 onwards, the competition will continue to follow its existing format of knock-out rounds, leading to the final at the Allianz Arena on May 31st.
European monoliths Bayern Munich and Real Madrid, currently ranked second and third, are expected to do well in the tournament. Manchester City, currently ranked first in the UEFA coefficient, is also in the running to win the Champions League this season. The other teams ranked in the top six are PSG, Liverpool, and Inter Milan.
But apart from the top six sides, which other 'smaller' team among the 36 teams in the tournament could pull up a surprise run to the final like Borussia Dortmund did last season?
Atalanta
After their surprising run to the UEFA Europa League last season, we expect Atalanta to do big things this season.
The Bergamo-based club surprised football fans last season when they went all the way in the Europa League, beating much more superior sides on their way to winning their first trophy since 1963 and their first-ever European title.
Gian Piero Gasperini finished top of their group before beating Sporting CP, Liverpool, Marseille, and Leverkusen with an aggregate score of 13-4, to win the title.
Even more impressive in that run is that they beat Liverpool at Anfield and were the only side to beat Leverkusen last season, doing so in the final without conceding a goal.
They also reached the Coppa Italia final (eventually losing to Juventus) and finished fourth in Serie A.
This season, they will play in the expanded Champions League for the fourth time in their history and the first time since the 2021/22 season.
However, the Serie A side has not been particularly impressive in the UCL. In their previous three seasons, they have only gone past the round of 16 once.
This season, they have been drawn alongside Real Madrid, Arsenal, Celtic, and Sturm Graz at home and Barcelona, Shakhtar Donetsk, Young Boys, and Stuttgart away. Atalanta ticket buyers will be desperate to get their hands on those home games, as they will offer quality entertainment.
Aston Villa
This season will be the first time since 1983 that Aston Villa fans will buy Champions League tickets with their club's name on them.
After finishing in the top four last season, the Premier League club will debut in the competition. Unai Emery's side was one of the best-performing sides in Europe's top five leagues last season.
They look primed to perform well again this season after an impressive summer transfer window, during which they kept most of their stars from last season and spent an extra €176.20 million on new players.
Villa will play Bayern Munich, Juventus, Celtic and Bologna at Villa Park while facing RB Leipzig, Club Brugge, Young Boys and AS Monaco away.
With an experienced coach like Emery in their ranks, they can get good results from these games and reach their first European final since 1982.
Sporting CP
Sporting CP is another ‘small’ team that could do well in this season's expanded UCL.
The Portuguese club won their second title in three years under Ruben Amorim last season.
This year, they could move into the next level under the highly-rated Portuguese coach, who attracted serious interest from Liverpool and Chelsea last season.
But under Amorim, Sporting have not really done well in Europe. However, things could change for them this season, especially as they have managed to keep their manager and star players like Viktor Gyökeres and Pedro Gonçalves despite interest from top clubs.
We expect Sporting CP tickets to be among the most sought-after tickets among Portuguese clubs in Europe this season.
Sporting came through the qualifier playoffs and has been drawn against Manchester City, Arsenal, Lille, and Bologna at home, while they face RB Leipzig, Sturm Graz, PSV, and Club Brugge away.
Arsenal
Arsenal may be the Premier League runner-up for the last two seasons, but they have not been very strong in Europe.
The Gunners are currently ranked 19th in the UEFA club coefficient, indicating how poor they have been recently in Europe.
Their last involvement in the UCL was last season, when they were eliminated in the quarter-finals by Bayern Munich.
Mikel Arteta's side strengthened this summer with the signings of Mikel Merino and Riccardo Calafiori, making them the team with the best defence in the Premier League.
With their defence shored up and their midfield better, Arsenal ticket holders can look forward to a good run in Europe this season.
Red Bull Salzburg
This season, Red Bull Salzburg could be the underdog to watch in the Champions League.
The Austrian club booked their place at this stage of the UCL through the playoffs, beating Twente and Dynamo Kyiv on their way to Europe's premier club competition.
Coached by former Liverpool assistant manager Pep Lijnders, Salzburg look like they will cause a lot of upsets this season. They have already begun their domestic campaign impressively, with four straight wins.
With Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Brest and GNK Dinamo all set to travel to Red Bull Arena, RB Salzburg tickets should offer good value for money.
Juventus
Like Arsenal, Juventus's recent campaigns in Europe have been miserable.
The Old Lady did not qualify for the tournament last season and has not advanced past the round of 16 since the 2018/19 season.
But this year, they could mount a surprise run to the final, even though they are in a rebuilding phase under Thiago Motta.
The new manager has Juventus ticket buyers excited about the future following his success with Bologna last term.
However, Juventus' summer business could hamper the club, as they could struggle after selling their experienced stars.
Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen needs no introduction after their historic 2023/24 season, during which they lost just one game and won two trophies.
Their only loss came in the Europa League final against Atalanta, but they proved they are now a force in Germany, with two domestic titles.
Leverkusen could go a step further by showing the rest of Europe their quality with a run to the Champions League final. The German champions will face both Milan clubs at home and Salzburg and Sparta Praha.
During their European journey this season, they will also travel to Liverpool, Feyenoord, Brest and Atletico Madrid.
Last season, Bayer Leverkusen tickets were among the most sought-after in Europe as the club made history. Having kept their highly-rated manager and star players this summer, they have the right tools to make more history this term.
Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid are looking pretty serious in the 2024/25 season. The Spanish club spent €185 million on new signings this summer, the third-highest amount spent in this window.
Although money does not guarantee success, Diego Simeone's side could be the surprise Champions League club this season.
Their first-round draw is easier than that of most other clubs, as they will face RB Leipzig, PSG, Bayer Leverkusen, Benfica, Lille, ŠK Slovan Bratislava, RB Salzburg, and Sparta Praha.
With Lille, Leipzig, Leverkusen, and Bratislava set to visit the Wanda Metropolitano in the first round, buyers of Atletico Madrid tickets should expect pure entertainment in the UCL this season.
