Which league will produce the next Champions League winner?

With the dust of the  2024 Copa America and European Championship finally settled, the focus of football fans is gradually shifting to the upcoming season.

Clubs are busy in the transfer window, trying to strengthen their squad ahead of the new season. Of particular interest for top European clubs is their preparedness to participate in the upcoming season's Champions League. The 2024/25 season has been expanded and will feature 36 teams. 

We expect a lot of drama and intrigue, so Champions League tickets will be one of the most prized assets in the common season.

But which league is likely to produce the next Champions League champions? La Liga, particularly Real Madrid, and the Premier League, to some extent, have dominated the UCL in recent years. In fact, Europe's top five leagues have produced the UCL champion in the last 20 years.

But will that change this season, or will a club outside Europe's top five leagues go all the way?

In this article, we consider the likeliest clubs from Europe's top five leagues and their chances of becoming the 24th winner of the UEFA Champions League.

English Premier League

The English Premier League has the unofficial tag of being the best league in the world. But this season, the Premier League is playing second fiddle among its peers, with the EPL having only four representatives in the expanded UCL. Premier League champions Manchester City are joined by Arsenal, Liverpool and Aston Villa. 

Among the quartet of Premier League clubs, Liverpool is the most successful and most prominent in Europe, with six Champions League/European Cup titles, while Pep Guardiola's Manchester City side is the most recent club from the British Isles to win the tournament. 

Arsenal are perennial underachievers in Europe, with zero UCL titles, and their run to the final of the 2006 edition is their most successful participation in the UCL thus far. Meanwhile, Aston Villa is making its first appearance in the tournament in the upcoming season, after pipping the likes of Tottenham, Chelsea, and Manchester United to the fourth position in the league last season. 

That said, Pep Guardiola and his Manchester City side remain the likeliest to go all the way in the 2024/25 UCL season. The Cityzens were the favourites to win the title last season, but they were narrowly knocked out in the quarter-final by eventual winners Real Madrid. 

But after becoming the first club to win four straight Premier League titles, Pep Guardiola's side will probably be extra motivated to win a European title next season. The fact that the Spanish coach is probably also in his final season at the Etihad means there is extra motivation to do a clean sweep of the available trophies before he leaves.

Meanwhile, while Man City are, on paper, the team to reckon with in Europe and England, Liverpool are the one club that often turn up in Europe. The Reds have won more European titles than all the other English clubs in next season's Champions League combined. They have reached three UCL finals in the last nine years, winning once and losing the other two to perennial winners Real Madrid. 

But with Jürgen Klopp, the brilliant manager who led the club to its greatest success in the 21st century, now gone, things may not be the same for Liverpool again. While there is a raging debate they may need or not need restrengthening to compete under new manager Arne Slot, there is no denying that this season will be a season of transition for them. 

Also, the fact that Slot has little experience and success in Europe means that we expect that Liverpool may not perform well in Europe.

Arsenal may be a new force to reckon with in England, but their lack of success in Europe suggests that they won't go far again this year. Meanwhile, no one expects UCL debutants Aston Villa to mount a serious challenge even though they have cup specialists Unai Emery within their ranks. 

The Spanish coach has done a tremendous amount of work at Villa Park. However, his squad is too inexperienced, and the Champions League lights may be too bright for them next season.

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La Liga

Like the Premier League, the Spanish La Liga has four teams in the next UCL group stage.

Perennial winners and current holders Real Madrid will be present to defend their crown. 

They are joined by UCL regulars Barcelona and Atletico Madrid as well as debutants Girona.

As expected, Real Madrid are the team to reckon with in the competition. The Spanish giants' history in the competition is well documented, and even when they are struggling domestically, they are a force to reckon with. Los Blancos have been crowned champions in six of the last eleven Champions League seasons, beating even teams superior in quality within that period.

Last season, despite being the inferior team, they survived Bayern Munich and Manchester City on their way to a 16th Champions League crown. Having added Kylian Mbappe to their ranks, there is no denying that they will be the favourites for the title next season.

Meanwhile, while Barca have been very dominant in Spain, they have never truly dominated Europe, except during the heydays of Pep Guardiola and Lionel Messi. Since winning the title in 2015, the Catalan club have become ordinary in the competition, reaching the semifinal only once in the last eight seasons.

Their poor form in the UCL is reflected in their recent UEFA ranking. Barca were ranked 18th, below less illustrious clubs like West Ham, Benfica, and Villarreal. But the good news is that they have a UCL-title-winning coach in their ranks. Yet, Hansi Flick doesn't possess a solid squad at Barca, and we expect his side to struggle in the tournament again next season.

Atletico Madrid has an even weaker squad than Barcelona. The 2016 UCL finalists only managed to finish inside the top four last season, and due to their transfer business, they don't seem like they will make more progress domestically or in Europe next season. The Spanish club has been a bit quiet in the transfer window, and they have lost striker Alvaro Morata to AC Milan. 

Meanwhile, UCL debutant Girona is not expected to go far in the competition. The small La Liga club overachieved last year, but their fairytale season was only good enough to sell many La Liga tickets. With many of the players who helped them finish third in La Liga sold or back to their parent club, Girona's chances of hitting those levels of last season are slim, especially in Europe, where the quality is high.

Serie A

While the Premier League can claim to be the best-marketed league in the world, the Italian Serie A is gradually becoming the most entertaining and competitive league in Europe.

Thanks to the success of Italian teams abroad, the Serie A will have five teams in next season's UCL, with Inter Milan, AC Milan, Juventus, Atalanta, and Bologna representing Italy.

Among the quintet of Italian clubs, Inter Milan is the most recent winner and finalists and, as such, the favourite among Italian teams to win the UCL. 

The San Siro side under Simone Inzaghi has become a force in Serie A, and having strengthened in the summer, they can go the distance to the final and actually win it.

AC Milan is the second most successful club in Europe, but the bulk of their success came in the early 21st and late 20th centuries. The last time they won the title was in 2007, and since then, they have reached the finals once in nine seasons, crashing out in the group stage in two of their last three UCL campaigns.

Juventus are in the rebuilding phase and won't mount a serious challenge in the UCL, while Europa League winners Atalanta, though making a lot of progress under Gian Piero Gasparini, are not expected to beat Europe's biggest teams. 

Bologna were exciting under Thiago Motta last season, but the Serie A side have lost the coach who led them to their first Champions League qualification in history and few of their key players this summer. So, they are not expected to sell many Serie A tickets or pose any serious threat to the likes of Man City and Real Madrid.

Bundesliga 

The German Bundesliga is the second league among Europe's top five leagues, with five teams in next season's UCL title.

Thanks to the performance of Borussia Dortmund, Bayern Munich, and Bayer Leverkusen in last year's European campaign, five teams will represent Germany. 

The aforementioned trio, along with Stuttgart and RB Leipzig, will be part of the 36 teams that will participate in the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League season.

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As usual, Bayern Munich is the biggest club in Germany and is usually the first name on the list of favourites. However, the Bavarians are a club in transition, following their well-documented struggles last season and the arrival of Vincent Kompany as their new head coach.

The former Man City defender is considered a fine tactician, but he has little experience and success coaching in the top flight, having led Burnley to relegation last season. Yet, with better-quality players at the Allianz Arena, he may succeed. 

Bayer Leverkusen conquered Germany last year and nearly won the Europa League with an unblemished record. But they fell at the last lap. However, their achievement and the work Xabi Alonso is doing at BayArena make them one of the dark horses of the 2024/25 Champions League season.

RB Leipzig, Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund may excite and make a good impression in the UCL, but none of them are expected to be the last team standing of the 36 teams that will enter the UCL group stage next season.

Ligue 1

Paris Saint-Germain, Monaco and Brest are the three French teams confirmed to be part of the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League.

Of these trio, only PSG has a chance of battling for the UCL title. However, the Parisians may be going through a transition period next season, having lost Kylian Mbappe to Real Madrid. Yet, with their endless supply of cash, they could strengthen their squad even better and finally break their Champions League curse. 

On paper, Monaco and Brest have no chance of going all the way, despite the abundance of talent in their squad.

Conclusion

Having won seven of the last ten UCL titles, La Liga, particularly Real Madrid, who were responsible for winning six, are the undisputed favourites to win the title next season.

The next league after La Liga is the Premier League, followed by the Bundesliga, which are both responsible for winning four of the last ten UCL titles. 

However, with Serie A clubs strengthening and having five representatives in the tournament, we could be in for a new champion by June next year.