How soon can Real Madrid win the La Liga title?
After an underwhelming 2022/23 season that saw Real Madrid fail to win the La Liga title, Los Blancos are on the cusp of winning it this season.
Last season, the Spanish giants lost the title to Xavi Hernandez's brilliant Barcelona side, ending the season ten points behind their fierce rivals. Madrid lost eight times in the league that season, twice the losses they suffered in their last two seasons.
However, this year, Carlo Ancelotti's side is in better shape. They top the La Liga table with eight points after 29 games. They also lead the pack on all other positive indices, such as goals scored and conceded. Led by summer signing and Ballon d'Or favourite Jude Bellingham, this young yet dominant Los Blancos side have suffered just one loss in the league this season.
At their current rate, Ancelotti's men are on course to better their point tally from each of their last six seasons, even though they won the league in two of those six seasons. This season, they are averaging 2.48 points per game, similar to their average in the 2016/2017 season, when they won the title by 93 points (they averaged 2.47 points per game that season).
With just nine games left to play in the league this season and with their closest rivals, Barcelona, eight points off the pace, it is now a matter of when and not if Real Madrid will win their 36th La Liga title come May. The capital club have been at the top of the league for almost the entire season, with their 2-0 win against Girona in September last year giving them the first major push to the top of the league. And since beating Villareal 4-1 in December, just before the winter break, Real Madrid have not lost a league game or relinquished top spot (W10, D3).
So it has been a peerless season for Real Madrid, and as the most decorated club in Spain, they should be confident of wrapping up the title sooner rather than later.
Can Anything Go Wrong?
But while Real Madrid are the outright favourites to win the title this season, they still have nine challenging games that can go either way and hurt their quest. And so they cannot become cocky and lose focus.
Injuries and suspensions are one issue that could derail their season. Los Blancos have had to deal with several injuries this campaign, although they have managed to fare well even without the services of key players.
For example, Thibaut Courtois, arguably the best goalkeeper in the world, has not featured this season, having torn his ACL in the summer. Yet, Madrid has fared well without him, with Kepa Arrizabalaga and Andriy Lunin sharing responsibility between the sticks to good effect. Between them, the duo conceded just 20 La Liga goals this season, the least in the league, keeping 14 clean sheets in the process.
Meanwhile, Eder Militao is another one who has suffered a long-term knee injury. The Brazilian defender has played just 50 minutes this season, while David Alaba's ACL injury was a bit more recent.
Nevertheless, Carlo Ancelotti has managed to keep the engine running and grinding out results. But how will Los Blancos fare if a player like Jude Bellingham gets injured for an extended period? The Englishman has been Madrid's most important player this season. He has made the summer loss of Karim Benzema look unimportant, as shown by his leading the club's and La Liga's scoring charts.
Vinicius Junior is another player who could be a big miss with an extended stint on the sideline. The tricky winger is Madrid's second-best player after Bellingham, and the club will want to wrap him in cotton wool for these last three months of the season.
Meanwhile, Toni Kroos, Eduardo Camavinga, Dani Carvajal and Antonio Rudiger are almost irreplaceable at Santiago Bernabeu, and losing any of these players to season-ending injuries could derail the title.
That said, Real Madrid is still on course to win the title and barring any drastic spike in injuries or suspensions, they will be crowned champions soon.
So when can they realistically expect to win the title? We look at the key games and dates that could define their season.
First Hurdle–Real Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao
To become champions in May, Carlo Ancelotti's side must first beat Athletic Club in their last game in March. Although they cannot be crowned champions if they win this game, winning here will be pivotal in the outcome of their season as it could guarantee that they enter their next huge game, still eight points ahead of their closest challengers.
After facing Bilbao, Madrid plays Real Mallorca before playing Barcelona. If they lose the game or the less complicated fixture against Mallorca, they will likely enter El Clasico five points ahead of Xavi's men. Such an outcome suddenly puts pressure on them and changes the game's outlook.
That said, Ancelotti's men are expected to beat Bilbao as they will play the game at home, where they have been in top form this season. Los Blancos haven't lost at Santiago Bernabeu in the 2023/24 La Liga season, and they have conceded just seven goals in 14 games on this ground. That record, combined with an incredible 17-game unbeaten league record against Bilbao (W12, D5), makes them prime favourites to win here.
Main Hurdle–Real Madrid vs Barcelona
The 188th La Liga El Clasico could decide whether Real Madrid wins the 2023/24 La Liga title or not.
Real Madrid host Barcelona on April 21 in the 32nd round of the season, and this is undoubtedly one of the biggest Real Madrid tickets to buy in the remaining months of this season.
Should they keep their eight-point lead going into this game, Los Blancos have the chance to open at least an eleven-point lead by taking maximum points here. This is assuming that Barca has also won their games. Winning Barca with six games and 18 points to go means that Ancelotti's men can mathematically wrap up the title in Gameweek 35 against Granada.
While games between these two teams are unpredictable and can go either way, Real Madrid will be favourites to win here, given that they are the home team on the day. Also, they have enjoyed superiority in recent meetings, winning the last three competitive games between both sides by an aggregate score of 10-2.
Another Hurdle–Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid
Real Madrid's trip to San Sebastian on the last weekend of April is another defining moment in their quest for a 36th La Liga crown. Los Blancos could be on the cusp of winning the title when they visit Reale Arena, or they may need to bounce back from a disappointing outing against Barcelona in the previous round. Either way, Madrid will travel for their Round 33 game in desperate need of a win to keep their dreams alive.
Trips to this stadium haven't always been easy, with Sociedad beating Madrid in two of their last five games on this ground, including a 2-0 win last season. However, Carlo Ancelotti has lost just twice in nine meetings with Sociedad (W6, D1), so he should be backed to mastermind another Madrid win at San Sebastian.
The Big Occasion–Granada vs Real Madrid
If Real Madrid wins all their games before they play Granada, their trip to Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes would mark when they finally win the La Liga title.
Los Blancos would have played six games before the trip to Granada, and if they managed to pick up maximum points from those games winning here would ensure that they mathematically win the title. This is also taking into account that Girona, currently in third place, won all their games before this tie.
With that in mind, there are no guesses on who should be the favourites here, as Madrid have won their last 15 league games against Granada, losing only once in 19 head-to-head meetings (W18).
Alaves, Villareal, and Real Betis
Assuming that Real Madrid fails to win the title in the games stated above, they would be expected to seal the title in either their home game against Alaves, their trip away to Villarreal or their final match of the season against Real Betis.
The Spanish giants are favourites against each of these teams, with their last defeat against Alaves and Real Betis coming in 2020. Nevertheless, Villarreal has been a more challenging prospect for the leaders, with just one win for Madrid in the last five head-to-heads (D2, L2). But the Yellow Submarines are not firing on all cylinders this season and were beaten 4-1 by Real Madrid in the previous fixture.
