Why Fulham could earn a European spot this season
Although it is just week two in the Premier League, the race for Europe has already begun.
Last season saw one of the most dramatic races for a place in Europe in recent history, with Manchester United’s surprise FA Cup win in the last game of the season altering the Premier League’s participation in Europe for this season.
The Red Devils finished outside the top seven but still secured a place in the Europa League group stage this season.
However, that route to the Europa League isn’t so regular as it was just the second time in the last ten Premier League seasons that a club that finished outside the top seven in the Premier League won the FA Cup.
So, for every club looking to play in Europe next season, the goal is to finish inside the top six or at least top seven.
The UEFA Europa Conference League is now available for the seventh-place team unless a club outside of the top seven wins the FA Cup.
Among the 20 Premier League clubs, at least three or four teams are expected to challenge for the title and fight for UEFA Champions League places, while another five or six teams will battle for the remaining European spots.
So, given that at least one new team has finished in the top seven in each of the last five Premier League seasons, there is a high chance that someone other than the current teams representing England in Europe will be playing in Europe next season.
Last season, Chelsea crashed the top-seven party, jumping from 14th place in the previous season to finishing in sixth place last season.
Aston Villa and Brighton also leapt from 14th and ninth in the 2021/22 season to finishing seventh and sixth respectively in the 2022/23 season.
Before the trio mentioned above, West Ham, Leicester City and Wolves also crashed the top-seven party, jumping from outside the top seven the previous season to a top-seven finish the following season.
New season top seven contenders
This season, several clubs will attempt to be the outsiders who will book a place in Europe through a top-seven finish.
Newcastle, Brighton, and West Ham, who have had a taste of European action via a top-seven finish, are gearing up to join the party again, having strengthened this summer.
However, another club appears prepared to join or even replace England’s traditional top six and book a place in Europe next season–Fulham.
Marco Silva’s side are playing their third consecutive season in the Premier League since their return to the top flight. In their first season after returning, they finished tenth, winning 52 points that season.
Though they missed out on a top-seven place, the Cottagers exceeded expectations that season, getting good results against Chelsea (W1, D1) and Liverpool (D1, L1).
Last season was not as good as the one before, though, as Fulham finished in 13th place, five points worse than the previous season.
Although the assumption was that they finished lower because of the departure of star striker Aleksandar Mitrović, who scored 14 league goals that season, Fulham’s goal record from their last two seasons has been unchanged.
The Cottagers scored 55 times in each of their last two seasons, so their main problem from last season was not a lack of goal scorers.
The Cottagers conceded 61 goals last term, eight more than they did in the season they finished tenth, suggesting that their issues may be more with keeping out goals than with scoring them.
Yet Marco Silva’s side aren’t far behind some of the other teams that finished ahead of them last season defensively.
The likes of Chelsea and West Ham conceded more than Fulham but still finished higher. So, finding the right balance is the way forward for Marco Silva’s side, who undoubtedly have the tools to plug the holes in their team and close the gap between them and the other teams.
That said, what makes Fulham one of the teams that can finish in the top seven this season?
Why should Fulham ticket buyers dream of buying Europa League tickets or Conference League tickets next season?
This article looks at four key reasons.
Smart signings
One major reason Fulham has a chance to finish in a European place this season is their summer business.
The Cottagers, alongside Liverpool, were the only Premier League club that did not sign a player in the first month of the transfer window.
However, since the end of the summer tournaments (Copa America, Euro 2024 and Olympics), they have been very active in the transfer market.
Marco Silva’s side have spent €91.5 million on new signings this summer. Emile-Smith Rowe from Arsenal, Crystal Palace defender Joachim Andersen, Sander Berge from Burnley, Jorge Cuenca from Villareal and Ryan Sessegnon are the major additions this summer, and all five players will make up the first team.
None of them are coming to sit on the bench, and they certainly make Silva’s squad better than it was last season.
Although Fulham lost three of its key players from last season–Joao Palinha, Willian, and Tosin Adarabioyo—the Cottagers have signed five of similar or even higher quality. They are still in the market for more quality players, and should they succeed in signing one or two before the window shuts, Fulham’s squad will be even more competitive.
Lack of European football
Fulham’s lack of European football this season could be the major decider in their attempt to return to Europe for the first time since the 2011/12 season.
The Cottagers have a small squad of 24 players, so they are better off not playing in Europe, as that could be detrimental to their chances of making the most of their season.
That said, history suggests that their lack of European involvement is a blessing. Only once in the last five Premier League seasons has at least one team not playing in Europe failed to finish in the top seven.
Usually, a club not participating in European football takes one of the top seven spots at the end of the season.
For example, Chelsea finished sixth last season after finishing outside the top half and missing out on Europe in the previous season. In the 22/23 season, Newcastle finished inside the top half after not playing in Europe that season. Arsenal did the same in the 21/22 season, qualifying for Europe after finishing eight the previous season.
Leicester City also achieved the feat, moving from ninth position with zero European involvement to a fifth-place finish in the 2019/20 season.
On the flip side, in the last ten Premier League seasons, at least one team that finished in the top seven or played in Europe in the previous season finished outside of the top seven the next season.
Following that pattern means that at least one of the teams that finished inside the top seven last season will finish outside the top seven this season.
Fulham are not guaranteed that spot, but at least they have history on their side and can take advantage.
Strength of other rivals
Manchester City and Arsenal are almost certain of a top-four finish this season, but the rest of the traditional top-six teams in the Premier League are in transition or rebuilding.
Liverpool, for example, hit the reset button when they hired Arne Slot, while Todd Boehly’s project at Chelsea largely remains a failing project as Chelsea continues to look lost under his Blue Co. ownership.
Tottenham and Ange Postecoglou have enjoyed a season together, and the Australian has promised he will win something this season, as he has always done in his second season at other places he has coached.
However, his Spurs team still looks a bit light and may struggle, despite the acquisition of Dominic Solanke.
Manchester United has invested heavily in their squad, but they still don’t look ready and may struggle this season.
That leaves Fulham and the likes of Newcastle United, Aston Villa, Brighton, and West Ham as the other teams that can join the top-seven battle.
The Cottagers are in a better position or at least on the same level as their rivals, especially since they have a squad and coach that have been together for three years.
Luck–Chelsea and Man City likely point deduction
One final point that could hugely help Fulham on their quest for a top-seven finish this season is the likely point deduction from Manchester City and Chelsea.
This season’s Premier League campaign could be the most dramatic as the winner and teams that will be relegated will be determined by a court ruling, not performance on the pitch.
In the last two seasons, we have witnessed teams in the lower end of the table affected by point deductions, with Nottingham Forest and Everton two teams that have had to fight for their lives due to points being deducted.
This season, points deduction could hit even higher proportions, as Chelsea and Man City are facing danger after failing the Premier League’s Profitability and Sustainability Rules.
City, in particular, is reportedly facing grave sanctions and could be relegated this season if found guilty of the 115 charges levelled against them.
Chelsea and Leicester City are also facing sanctions that could lead to points deduction.
Man City ticket holders and Chelsea ticket buyers will hope their teams are not found guilty, but should they be, their loss will be Fulham’s gain this season.
