Can Olympique Marseille win the 2024/2025 Ligue 1 title?

After a summer of international tournaments, club football returns in less than a month, with the 2024/25 Ligue 1 season kicking off with a game between Le Havre and Paris Saint-Germain.

Luis Enrique’s side will be looking to defend their crown and become the champions for the 13th time, while the likes of Monaco, Lyon and Marseille will be looking to stop the defending champions from making it four titles in a row.

The 2024/25 Ligue 1 tickets are already on sale, and the opening match on Friday, 16 August, between Le Havre and PSG is expected to produce many goals. 

However, while PSG fans are warming up for another ride to the title, there is a genuine belief among some of the other club fans that this could be their club's year. 

One of such clubs is Marseille. The ten-time Ligue 1 winners have been in the periphery since the mid-1990s when they won four league titles in a row. 

Since then, Olympique de Marseille have won just one league title, finishing as runners-up on eight occasions.

However, with PSG seemingly in a rebuilding phase, Marseille have emerged as one of the few teams that could take the crown from the defending champions next season. Les Phoceens have an exciting new manager and have signed some top players, making Olympique de Marseille tickets more attractive to fans and neutrals. 

But will their new signings and change in management translate into them winning the 2024/25 Ligue 1 title? 

This article explores their chances and advantages in the Ligue 1 title race. 

The No Kylian Mbappe effect

After over seven years of ruling the French league with Monaco and Paris Saint Germain, Kylian Mbappe finally completed his dream move to Real Madrid this summer.

The Frenchman was arguably the most important and decisive player in the French top flight since bursting into the limelight in 2016, and his record in Ligue 1 shows how valuable he was to Monaco and, particularly, PSG. 

The 25-year-old was named Ligue 1 Player of the Year a record five times and finished as the Ligue 1 top scorer for a record six seasons. 

In the 2021–22 season, he became the first player to finish as both Ligue 1 top scorer and top assist provider. 

Last season, he became PSG's record goalscorer in Ligue 1, so there is no doubt that he will be a big miss for the French giants. As we discussed in a previous article, his exit has undoubtedly weakened the Ligue 1 defending champions and probably opened the door for someone else to snatch the title from the Parisians. 

So, should Marseille get their act together, they could be the team that benefits from Mbappe's exit.

PSG still has the strongest team

Having analysed how Mbappe's departure has weakened Paris Saint-Germain and given Marseille a shot at the title, there is no denying that the Parisians still have the best squad in France.

According to Transfermarkt, the Qatari-backed defending champions boast the most valuable squad in Ligue 1. Their €957 million squad is almost three times the value of their closest rivals, Monaco, whose team is valued at €377 million.

So, while a valuable squad does not translate quality players or guarantee title wins, the disparity in value between PSG and the other Ligue 1 teams is too wide and can only point to the club being the most equipped to compete domestically and in Europe in France.

Meanwhile, though they have the strongest squad in Ligue 1, PSG are not resting on their laurels. They have been relatively quiet in the summer transfer market, with Matvey Safonov the only addition so far; they have concrete plans to add the likes of João Neves and Victor Osimhen from Napoli.

Should they succeed in signing both players and keeping the highly-rated Xavi Simons, they will be further strengthened to rule Ligue 1 for another season.

Roberto De Zerbi factor

One of the major reasons Marseille are in the title discussion for the 2024/25 Ligue 1 season is the presence of Roberto de Zerbi.

The Italian manager was one of the most sought-after young coaches in England last summer after guiding Brighton to a top-six finish in the Premier League. 

De Zerbi announced himself to the European audience with Sassuolo, whom he led to two consecutive eighth-place finishes in the Italian top flight, losing a UEFA Conference League qualification place to Roma only on goal difference at the end of the 2020–21 Serie A season.

However, despite his success at Sassuolo, the 45-year-old's most impressive attribute was his team's style of play. 

The Italian reannounced himself and his playing style with success at Brighton, leading the Premier League side to their first European participation with a sixth-place finish in the 2022/23 season.

He failed to reach the same heights last season, though, as Brighton finished in eleventh place in the Premier League. 

But despite the club's failings, De Zerbi didn't lose his respect, as his team's suffering was as a result of the exit of his key players and injuries. In the end, he left Brighton by mutual consent, but with his reputation intact, proven by the interest of many top clubs in his services after he announced his departure from Brighton.

That said, there is no doubt that Marseille will entertain under him. Les Phoceens lacked a clear identity last season, and the constant managerial changes were majorly to blame for their poor showing, especially in Ligue 1, where they finished in eighth place.

But with Dr Zerbi, Marseille will have a clear identity that will entertain fans and get results. The Italian is tactically astute, and he has shown that he knows how to communicate his ideas. He will get his team playing after his style in no time.

But will De Zerbi finally win a league title? While his side has entertained, he has yet to win a league title. 

However, he came close with Shakhtar Donetsk, leaving the Ukrainian side at the top of the league before fleeing due to the conflict. He did win the Ukrainian Super Cup in Ukraine and could win his first league title in France next season. 

Does Olympique Marseille have the players to win the league?

A good coach needs good players to execute his ideas, and the Marseille squad De Zerbi inherited can't win the league.

However, the manager is doing a good job overhauling his squad this summer. And the good news is that he has the backing of the club's hierarchy, Les Olympians, the most active French club in the summer transfer window.

The signing of Mason Greenwood, Ismaël Koné, and Pierre-Emile Højbjerg has improved the squad, while the rumoured addition of Eddie Nketiah from Arsenal looks like a smart buy.

However, the club will be without its top scorer from last season, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, who joined the Saudi Pro League club Al Qadsiah this summer. So, relying on Greenwood and maybe Nketiah for goals, if he eventually joins, will be too risky for De Zerbi's side.

Unless he manages to get Nketiah or another new striker going from the first week, Marseille may have another bad season.

No European involvement

Meanwhile, although Marseille may have a small squad compared to PSG, their lack of involvement in Europe next season could be the game-changer.

Les Phoceens finished outside of European spots last season, so they will be focused on the league and domestic cup action alone this season. 

While that isn't good for their finances, it helps their focus and fitness, especially given their squad depth.

Without the added pressure of playing in Europe, Marseille can focus all their energy on winning the league. History suggests that their absence from Europe can help them in their attempt to win the league. 

This is seen in the fact that two of the last three teams not named PSG to win the French league had little or no participation in Europe. 

Apart from Monaco, who won the title in the 2016/17 season while reaching the Champions League and Coupe de France semifinal, Montepellier, in the 2011/12 season, went from finishing in 14th position to winning the league the following season while Lille won the league in the 2020/21 season after crashing out of Europe in the knockout playoffs.

Although there is no guarantee that their absence from Europe will result in them winning the league, their absence from it could be a big boost. 

Conclusion

Marseille have undoubtedly made a good start to the transfer window, and on the outside, they look like one of the teams that will challenge for the title next season. 

However, the strength of their opponents and their current squad strength may be their undoing, while the fact that they are starting afresh with a new coach and many new players could threaten their chances. 

That said, Marseille already looks like the team to beat in Ligue 1 next season. However, it remains to be seen how they will fare in the 2024/25 season.